Consumer sentiment has dropped by more than 10% over the past month, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline, according to the University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey. The decline is attributed to growing concerns about trade war developments, with various warning signs pointing to the risk of a recession. The drop in sentiment was widespread across factors such as age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation.
The survey results were released just after President Donald Trump announced a pause on sweeping tariffs on imported goods, keeping a 10% duty in place along with separate tariffs on specific commodities. The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the coming year has been steadily increasing for five months, reaching the highest level since the Great Recession.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted a “still solid” outlook on economic growth but mentioned dimming expectations and higher uncertainty due to Trump administration policies, particularly related to trade. Inflation expectations for the next year surged to the highest level in nearly 45 years, with a significant jump among independents in long-run inflation expectations.
The University of Michigan survey serves as an indicator of consumer confidence in the U.S. economy and highlights an overall negative sentiment among consumers. The continuous decline in various economic factors raises concerns about the overall health of the economy.
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